Download Advanced Macroeconomics by David Romer PDF

By David Romer

Designed for graduate classes in macroeconomics, this crucial new textual content via a unique economist is the most recent addition to McGraw-Hill's complex sequence in Economics. The textual content is an creation to the research of macroeconomics at a complicated point. inside every one half, the most important concerns and competing theories are mentioned. The presentation of theories is supplemented with examples of suitable empirical paintings as a manner of illustrating how macroeconomics theories will be utilized or confirmed. every one bankruptcy concludes with an in depth set of difficulties.

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It tells us something when regressions and other advanced statistical methods are rarely used by individuals who will look for any edge to get ahead. In reality, statistical models of human behavior are ultimately a form of history, a simplified numerical narrative of what happened in the past. They may reveal broad tendencies and suggest causal relationships, but as a rule they cannot provide accurate predictions (see box). Pitfalls of Predictive Models Scientists and mathematicians have developed many models to reliably predict outcomes in the natural world.

Knowledge of the particular circumstances of time and place that cannot be easily communicated is also vital, although it is “generally regarded with a kind of contempt” as compared to “theoretical or technical knowledge”: We need to remember only how much we have to learn in any occupation after we have completed our theoretical training, how big a part of our working life we spend learning particular jobs, and how valuable an asset in all walks of life is knowledge of people, of local conditions, and of special circumstances.

The new lending machine has a fundamentally different character. On the front lines, loan officers have made way for mortgage brokers. In 2004, approximately 53,000 mortgage brokerage companies employed an estimated 418,700 employees and originated 68 percent of all residential loans in the United States, according to a study by Wholesale Access Mortgage Research & Consulting. 24 The mortgage broker’s judgments and relationships are used for marketing, not evaluating loan applications. The brokers’ role in the credit process lies mainly in helping or coaching applicants in filling out forms.

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