Download Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union by Francisco Torres, Francesco Giavazzi PDF

By Francisco Torres, Francesco Giavazzi

This quantity analyzes the ecu Community's transition to financial and financial union (EMU) within the gentle of the agreements reached at Maastricht final 12 months. It derives from a convention held by means of the CEPR and the financial institution of Portugal, and contains between its individuals a couple of famous educational commentators on ecu integration. the problems addressed within the quantity comprise: the connection among a typical forex and inflation convergence; the results of economic unification on Europe's more and more built-in monetary markets and monetary structures; and EMU's implications for the EC's long term progress.

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The next two sections provide an examination of the provisions for the transition (Chapter 4 of the Maastricht Treaty). The discussion focuses on the duration of Stage II, the role of the EMI, the interpretation of the convergence criteria, and the prospect of variable speeds (or geometry) in the process. In the following section the outcome is interpreted in terms of the official and academic debate over the role of Stage II. Particular emphasis is given to the different approaches referred to in the Report of the Committee for the Study of Economic and Monetary Union (1989) the Delors Report - and in the collection of papers annexed to this report.

To those like myself who have advocated also some steps along the lines of approaches (ii) and (iii) above, limited pooling of operations is not sufficiently ambitious for a substantive Stage II, even in a short transition. It is clear, however, that any significant change towards pooling of decision-making over national policy instruments, notably short-term interest rates, or towards assigning any collective policy instruments to the EMI must now be regarded as virtually excluded. Yet a new case can be made, in the light of the present timetable for Stage II of 3-5 years, for joint experimentation with a policy instrument to influence aggregate money creation in the Community, namely, reserve requirements on bank deposits by EC residents.

The EMI - and before 1 January 1994 the committee of central bank governors -will be faced with challenges in the ECU market. These challenges are likely to emerge more quickly than was thought possible under a slower and less definite timetable for EMU than that agreed at Maastricht. As the future ECU becomes more visibly divorced from the present basket in the approach to full EMU, central banks will have to take a more explicit view on the fluctuations in the exchange rate and the interest rate on the ECU relative Critical notes on the Maastricht Treaty revisions 25 to the basket than the fairly detached attitude they have been able to permit themselves in 1990-91.

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